Market Signals
The Signals Analysts Use to Spot a Bitcoin Bottom
No single chart calls a bottom. What actually happens, in Jack's process and in most serious technical analysis, is a handful of imperfect signals get watched together, and the more of them that line up, the more attention a level gets. Here are the ones that come up most, described plainly, with the historical examples they are actually built on.
Bullish divergence on the RSI
The RSI is a momentum indicator. Bullish divergence is when price sets a new low but the RSI sets a higher low than it did at the previous low, meaning the selling behind the new low was weaker than the selling behind the last one. It showed up at the 2018 bear market low and again at the 2022 low, in both cases before the eventual recovery, which is why it is one of the first things checked against any candidate bottom.
Where the fear money goes: stablecoin dominance
When fear spikes, capital tends to flee into stablecoins like USDT rather than leave crypto entirely. A rising stablecoin dominance chart reflects that fear. What analysts actually watch for is the turn: dominance spiking on a crash, failing to make a clean new high on the next scare, and rolling over. That rollover, more than the spike itself, has historically meant the fear money is starting to move back into risk assets.
Supply in profit versus supply in loss
This one tracks what share of all circulating Bitcoin is sitting at an unrealized profit against what share is sitting at an unrealized loss. When the loss side overtakes the profit side, meaning more coins are underwater than not, that crossover has lined up with the 2018 and 2022 bear market lows. It is a measure of capitulation: the point where holding at a loss becomes the norm rather than the exception.
Where the astrology layer fits in
None of the above is astrology, and none of it is treated as sufficient on its own inside this method, which is the whole point of the 3-layer method: a technical signal without a timing window is a maybe, and a timing window without a technical signal is a date on a calendar. The clearest documented case of the two lining up is March 2023, when Saturn's conjunction to Bitcoin's natal Venus, the planet most associated in this framework with money and contraction, coincided with the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and a fast dump that marked a local low. That call is walked through in full in the site's March 2023 case study.
Why the discipline matters more than any one signal
Every signal above has been wrong before, on its own. RSI can diverge and price can still make a lower low. Stablecoin dominance can roll over early. That is exactly why this method insists on more than one layer agreeing before it is treated as a real setup rather than a note on a chart. The Track Record shows both the calls where the layers lined up and the ones where they did not.